Friday, April 24, 2009

RECESSIONNN......WHAT SAY???

This is my first attempt at blogging. So please excuse me for obvious mistakes. Will try to improve with each of my subsequent posts and would be glad to take note of the reader's criticisms and brickbats. But do share your comments & views.

Recession has become an oft-repeated word these days. As the title of this blog suggests, I would like to dwell on whether there is actually a severe recession in India like the other parts of the world, particularly the northern parts of India like the upcoming suburbs of Gurgaon and cities like Chandigarh (where Ed-Hardy is opening its second store after Delhi) and Ludhiana (where Mercedes, BMW's & Audis are still being sold like hot cakes). I am in doubt, going by the serpentine queues in the newly opened Blu-O bowling lounge and the Rockman's Beer Island in Ambience Mall, Gurgaon. I was a visitor there with my wife last Saturday and we had to wait for more than an hour for our turn at bowling. Same was the case with the Beer Island. It was pretty jam packed and surprisingly enough if you look at the exorbitantly priced menu there. I also saw people shopping for the top brands like crazy as if there was no tomorrow. How can you justify the DLF Emporio mall if things are so bad. Another case in point are my neighbours. Three of them just bought their Audis A6 ( I wonder if it is a fad ? ) which again left me flummoxed about all the talk centering around the word 'recession'. I am in the CA & financial consultancy profession and thought that if they were my clients and had I asked my fees from them, then in typical today's fashion they would have replied something like this as many others: "You will have to wait Mister. The company is in a liquidity crunch because of the recession. We will have to cut down on your fees too." And I would have typically said to myself : But what about their Audis & BMW's. Lies & excuses but nothing else. F*** my life!

Though people have been loosing jobs in India in some sectors but not at the same frantic pace as in US where pink slips are being handed over each week on a friday and times are like the 'Great Depression' of the world war era. In India, the Export, Real Estate & the IT sector could be the worst affected but in my opinion India is still better cushioned from global downturn than other countries. For this we should thank our huge populace (at last we should not sulk about are billions) and its equally huge domestic consumption, appetite and saving habits. And not to forget the parallel black economy which mainly exists in India. Our domestic industry should & will thrive on our billions. Our GDP growth is still being projected at 6%, very high as compared to the western world.

I thought and thought about the above queues, the opulent cars and the utterance of the word "recession " wherever you go (even my ten year old knows what the fuss is all about now :-) ) but ultimately concluded that people are going to eat anyway and entertain themselves too be it bowling, beer, movies, fashion, cars or cricket. Damn the recession.... What if I died tomorrow.... But alas! in the process and excess some get sick too. As they say the food, entertainment and healthcare business are recession proof & thrive the most during depressing times. Will anybody volunteer to take me as their partner for these business ideas ? Please count me in though not as an investor.... are you mad who has the money now ? So instead let's raise a toast to our fellow Indians and try to enjoy these times whatever they may be. Stop sulking and Cheers !!!

12 comments:

Unknown said...

Well said... I like the attitude!! It's not going to work in US though..

Joseph Thomas said...

No worries here. We have the lowest unemployment rate in the world and the education sector is booming like never before. You are most welcome to partner and enjoy the upside.
Long live India, its providing the highest nos. of students ever.

The great Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter thought of recessions the way a naturalist might think of forest fires: periodic purges that burn off dead wood and make room for new growth. It was in recessions that what Schumpeter famously termed capitalism's "creative destruction" was at its most ferocious: Lean times sped up the process by which more adaptable companies and new industries pushed aside the less fit.

Economists do agree, however, that recessions help to right economies that have lost touch with reality. Recessions not only cull unhealthy companies, they expose financial gimmickry. They punish groundless optimism and the rampant speculation it feeds - in fanciful Internet ventures in the 1990s, for example, or in housing over the past few years.

They also shrink trade deficits. America imports far more than it exports, creating an imbalance that has worried experts for a generation. But as the economy weakens in a recession, the value of the dollar drops and household budgets shrink, so we buy less from abroad, and the deficit narrows. At the same time, the weak dollar helps our exports, further shrinking the gap. Many, though by no means all, economists see reducing the US trade imbalance, and the foreign debt that finances it, as a painful necessity. The money spent on interest on foreign debt is money that can't be spent on more productive investments, and we're at the mercy of foreign creditors' continued willingness to lend to us at favorable rates. Wishing you new beginings.
Best of Luck.
Joseph

sunny said...

Great to see your first virgin attempt to blogging ;-)
I agree with you fully and I guess my next car should be Audi ;-).
Best of luck and keep pouring your straight from heart thoughts.

Shalini said...

Gr8 job Sumit. Keep up the gud work. I didn't know u cud write so well. Lookin forward to more posts.

Ashwin said...

I agree with your views. Let's actually raise a toast :D

Sheetal Chopra said...

It was a really good attempt if it was your first time. I liked it. I totally agree that in India you don't see the effects of slowdown so much infact for some sections of the society hardly any. But maybe thats the good part of living in India where you are well cushioned....
Sheetal

Sunil Nayanar said...

Nice start, Sumit!
Very timely one on recession too..I agree with the views, although the Beer island queue must have been becoz of the harsh sun!

I tried to write a comment, but the link doesn't seem to be working. Anyways, looking forward to future posts.

All the best..
Best regards,
Sunil Nayanar
Sr. Product Specialist, UK Equities

Kokil Tandon said...

well I really liked your blog...tho not as gud as mine lemme reiterate...I wanted to leave a comment on ur blog but it wont let me :(
and ur soo rite GGaon abhi bhi khali upcoming hi hai :P

Samir Khanna said...

hi sumit, nice start. just getting to read your first blog. a couple of comments - it's true that india hasn't been hit that bad by the recession but thinking long term, the social and economic inequalities that persist in indian society today will have to be mitigated for the country to truly prosper. The prosperity and the malls etc. you mention are only enjoyed by less than 10% of Indian society. I agree that the US will see a decline with it's overall share of world GDP shrinking though it's going to be quite gradual. I was reading in the Economist that by 2050, China, US and India will be numbers 1,2 and 3

The only good change I've noticed in American society due to the recession that people are learning what it means to save and live within your means, an alien concept to them before.

Another unrelated observation of mine (which might be good material for your next blog post !)is that in the US, in many ways, people are trying to mimic the east in many ways like yoga, meditation, becoming vegetarians etc while in India there seems to be an insatiable consumer appetite for all things western. It's almost as if the east and west might meet somewhere in the middle, in terms of social thinking..........

Sumit Suri aka Tinks said...

Hi Samir, Thanx a lot for taking out ur precious time to read my blog and then also posting your valuable comments.I really appreciate it. It will definitely encourage me to post on a regular basis on issues which interest all generations.The malls I mention are just symbolic of the urban prosperity even at the middle income level in India, the rural as it is are deprived of them.Our GDP growth is still being projected at 6% which is quite high than the western world.And thanx for the idea for my next blog post. Btw did you check out my recent one on fitness ? Cheers !!

suresh madan said...

I knew you have lot of qualities.well expressed

I am sure if you make a documentory film on any social or any topic you will suceed 100%.

you have lot in side and can express very well.

Recession :Its a time for spending.

If you spend today the recession is not there.

Its not visible and its not there.

Yes if you stop spending now positevely the recession is visible.

Big cars AUDi-BMW-Mercedese are bought by the people who are in the race of competition.


People who are rich i feel are not in the grip of car race.

Lets look for a nano for local drive.

wbr
suresh madan

Unknown said...

Did not know you were such a great writer. Keep it up